Ethiopia inaugurated its mega-dam on September 9, 2025, several years behind schedule. The multi-billion-dollar, self-financed, Renaissance Dam has a generating capacity of 5,000 megawatts. It is the most powerful on the continent, raising hopes for the expansion of electricity in the country, as well as significant revenue for the State. In a television interview last week, Abiy Ahmed said it could bring in $1 billion annually to the country’s economy.
A statement that caught the attention of observers. Biruk Haregu is a professor and researcher specializing in Ethiopian politics and economics: “It’s uncertain exactly how much foreign exchange earnings electricity exports from the GERD will generate in the short-term. For example, the Ethiopian electricity authority (Ethiopian Electric Power) has stated that, for the last fiscal year, electricity exports brought in about $100 million. For the current fiscal year, estimates are around $118 million, and for the coming fiscal year, they forecast revenues of approximately $300 million.”
According to official statements, only surplus production should be exported. But for Tsegay Tekleselassie, an economist at Wellesley College in Boston, it is likely that the authorities will focus on exports. Ethiopian electricity is already flowing to Kenya, Djibouti, Sudan, and recently Tanzania. Addis Ababa has also shown its desire to make Ethiopia an energy hub in Africa.
“Ethiopia has a very large electricity supply deficit. About 40% of Ethiopians do not have access to electricity, and those who are connected have problems with outages,” the economist analyzes. Therefore, there is a strong unmet demand. “Despite this, Ethiopia aspires to export to neighboring countries because it really needs foreign currency. Moreover, by supplying its neighbors, it gives Ethiopia a certain political bargaining power,” continues Tsegay Tekleselassie.
Data Reliability?
$1 billion, a figure that appears overestimated and which once again raises the question of the reliability of statistics in Ethiopia. Biruk Haregu highlights: “One of the challenges that the Abiy Ahmed regime has faced in recent years concerns issues relating to the reliability of economic data. Economic statistics have been subject to scrutiny and questioning, not only by Ethiopian and foreign experts, but also institutions like the World Bank, which have begun to question the economic data emanating from this regime.”
While Addis Ababa is acquiring significant production capacity, experts agree that the situation is unlikely to change radically for Ethiopians in the immediate future. The aging national grid requires significant investment to distribute the electricity produced.
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Editors Note: This report was initially published by RFI’s Africa Economy Podcast and prepared by its correspondent Charlotte Cosset.
Ethiopian Policy Institute 